Rasmussen Poll 11/4/08

Tuesday, November 04, 2008
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The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. One percent (1%) of voters say they’ll select a third-party option while 1% remain undecided. Tomorrow, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern, we will release our final Election Night poll results offering a look at what voters were thinking as they cast their ballots.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters cast their ballots early this year and those voters favored Obama by a double-digit margin. Among those who will actually cast their ballots on Tuesday, the candidates are essentially even.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters spent at least an hour discussing the election on Monday while another 20% spent a half hour on the topic.

Fifty-six percent (56%) have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 55% say the same about John McCain.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters expect to see an Obama victory today, including 18% who anticipate a landslide for the Democrat.

Just 19% expect McCain to win, but another 22% say it’s still too close to call.

Voters are evenly divided as to which candidate is a better leader.

When the Election behind us, daily tracking will shift to coverage of the President-elect and the transition to a new Administration (a FREE daily e-mail update is available).

In the Electoral College projections, Rasmussen Reports now shows Obama leading 260 to 160. When states that are leaning in one way or the other are included, Obama leads 286 to 160. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed for victory.

Six states with 65 Electoral College votes remain in the Toss-Up category—Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio. All six of those states voted Republican four years ago.

Four states are only leaning in Obama’s direction at this time—Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Four years ago, New Hampshire voted Democratic while the other three voted Republican.

For McCain to get the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House, he would need to win just about all of the Toss-Up states and those that are leaning to the Democrats. Polling from all 10 states show potentially competitive races, but Obama is ahead in many and none show a clear lead for McCain.

Unless McCain pulls off a stunning comeback, history will note the final two weeks of September as the decisive and defining moment of this campaign. On September 14, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed McCain up by three points. Then Lehman Brothers collapsed and the Wall Street debacle began to dominate the news. McCain’s lead disappeared almost immediately. By September 26, Obama reached the 50% level of support and was ahead by five percentage points.

The Democratic nominee never let go of that lead. Today is the 40th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52%. Only once during that entire time did his lead fall below four points, and it occasionally expanded to eight (see trends).

During that 39-day stretch, Obama did well in the debates and in many ways campaigned like Ronald Reagan: He reminded voters of an unpopular incumbent, offered an upbeat message in a time of economic anxiety and promised tax cuts to just about everyone.

Like Reagan, Obama’s tax-cutting message became the single most visible part of his campaign, and 31% of voters expect their taxes to decline if the Democrat wins tomorrow. Only 11% expect a tax-cut with a McCain victory.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide, McCain by 55% (see trends). Those figures include 42% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 27% who are that upbeat about McCain.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama and 23% say that about McCain.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Democrats say their party made the right choice by nominating Obama. Only 65% of Republicans say their party made the right choice.

As for the running mates, 76% of Democrats say that Joe Biden was the right vice presidential pick for Obama to make. Seventy-one percent (71%) say the same about McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin.

After the election has come and gone, tracking poll results will still be released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (a FREE daily e-mail update is available).

Rasmussen Reports will release final updates from our Election Night polling on Wednesday morning. Thursday we begin tracking results of the president-elect and the transition to a new administration. We will also continue daily updates on consumer and investor confidence while measuring public reaction to events in the news and other topics.